The latest report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, published on 11 August 2026, paints a two sided picture of the African continent’s relationship with climate this season. Southern Africa is heading toward one of its strongest agricultural harvests in recent years, while East Africa is sliding deeper into a food crisis fueled by drought, conflict and the El Niño phenomenon.
In Southern Africa, regional cereal production is expected to reach 43.4 million tonnes, roughly 10 percent above the five year average. South Africa anticipates a 10 percent rise in maize output, while Zambia is forecasting a historic record of 4.94 million tonnes of maize. This regional upturn does not erase every difficulty, as Angola is dealing with localized dry conditions and Mozambique is grappling with flooding in parts of the country.
The picture in East Africa is starkly different. The region is experiencing worsening heatwaves and dry spells, intensified by the effects of El Niño. The Joint Research Centre report forecasts below average rainfall through September, a trend expected to significantly damage crop production in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia.
The assessment warns of high famine risk across fourteen areas of Darfur and South Kordofan unless emergency aid is substantially increased. Ongoing conflict in Sudan and South Sudan is compounding the crisis, pushing millions of people into acute food insecurity that now overlaps with the climate emergency.
This contrast between the two regions shows how climate impacts and geopolitical instability combine differently across the continent, making any uniform response inadequate. While Southern Africa can look forward to rebuilding reserves and stabilizing food prices, East Africa must contend with drought, armed conflict and collapsing agricultural output all at once, a combination that leaves the humanitarian outlook especially critical in the months ahead.