Cotton is regaining color on international markets, to the great relief of African economies that depend on it. After a downward cycle that began in 2023, the natural fiber is showing a clear rebound, a trend confirmed by an Afreximbank report published on July 27. Front-month futures contracts were trading around 80.5 cents a pound in July 2026, a 35 percent increase from their lowest point in February.
This rebound is not a mere conjunctural accident. It rests on a structural imbalance between global supply and demand. According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture, world cotton production is expected to fall to 116 million bales for the 2026/2027 season, down from 122.7 million the previous season, a decline of 5.5 percent. At the same time, mill consumption is expected to remain close to 122 million bales, mechanically tightening available stocks and pushing prices upward.
Several conjunctural factors have reinforced this dynamic. Cotton has faced fierce competition from polyester for years, which accounts for nearly 80 percent of global fiber consumption. But geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz sent energy prices soaring in 2026, raising production costs for polyester, a synthetic fiber derived from oil, and unexpectedly restoring the natural fiber’s competitiveness. Adding to this, drought hit the American cotton belt, reducing expected yields across the Atlantic, while Brazil, now the world’s top exporter, continues to consolidate its dominance through large-scale agriculture and fully integrated logistics.
For African producer countries, particularly those in the so-called Cotton-4 zone, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad, this upswing opens a welcome window of opportunity after years of depressed prices. The recovery in prices could generate significant additional export revenue for economies where cotton remains a major agricultural pillar.
The window remains narrow, however, and the price rally alone will not be enough to change the game. Production is stagnating, or even declining, in several key producer countries on the continent, notably Chad, Cameroon and Mali, held back by insufficient yields, fragile logistics chains and still-limited local processing. For African producers to truly capture the benefits of this rise in world prices, several conditions will need to be met: improved agricultural yields, stronger logistics infrastructure and, above all, the development of a local processing industry, which would allow them to capture more added value rather than simply exporting the raw material.
The equation also remains fragile over the medium term. Major importing countries, notably China, Bangladesh and Turkey, could be prompted to adjust their purchasing volumes or increasingly favor synthetic fibers if cotton prices were to rise too sharply, which would ultimately limit the reach of this rebound for Africa’s cotton-dependent economies.