El Niño has taken hold in the Pacific and keeps gaining strength, with a peak expected between October and November 2026. Forecasts from the US agency NOAA put the chances of a very strong event this autumn and winter at more than 90 percent. They also estimate a 69 percent probability that, between October and December, it will surpass every episode recorded since 1950. For Africa, the consequences look set to be numerous and to vary sharply from one region to another.
Children are among those most at risk. In an estimate released on October 6, UNICEF said 20 million children in West and Central Africa live in areas where rainfall is expected to be abnormally low or heavy through December. In East and Southern Africa, the figure rises to 41 million. Worldwide, the UN agency counts more than 347 million children affected in nearly 100 countries and territories. In the Horn of Africa, and in Somalia in particular, heavier than usual rains could trigger floods, spread waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling.
The south and east of the continent face opposite fates. On October 1, the World Meteorological Organization flagged a heightened risk of drought from October 2026 to March 2027 in South Africa and in central and southern Mozambique. Further north, notably in Tanzania, the worry is excess rain and a growing risk of flooding.
East Africa accounts for many of the warnings. In late August, the Danish Refugee Council cautioned that floods could cause between 750,000 and 3 million displacements in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of the year. The organisation recalls that the 2023 floods had already displaced more than 2 million people in the region. In Nairobi, officials did not wait: as early as September 7, 246 areas of the Kenyan capital were placed on high alert for the October to December rainy season. The aid group IRC points out that many communities are only just recovering from the historic droughts of 2023 and 2024, and from the floods that came after.
In West Africa, the picture is more mixed. The Agrhymet Regional Centre, part of CILSS, confirmed in late July that the phenomenon had set in. It stresses, however, that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean a poor rainy season across the whole Sahel and West Africa. Researchers nonetheless urge authorities and residents to stay alert as the peak approaches.
With these threats looming, the priority is anticipation. The African Union, Mozambique and SADC held an international conference on disaster risk reduction and resilience from October 13 to 15. Back in July, the continental body had already convened an extraordinary session on El Niño preparedness, built around a simple message: this time, Africa has early warning. National preparedness plans, climate resilient farming and stronger alert systems are all well known solutions. How they are carried out in the coming weeks will show whether the continent has managed to turn these warnings into real protection for its people.