In Port-Gentil on Friday, September 25, the talks with the International Monetary Fund came down to one question: how much does Gabon actually owe? President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema received an IMF delegation, with experts from the Ministry of Economy and Finance also present. The goal was to make public finance data more reliable and to reconcile debt estimates that currently disagree. According to the presidency, the head of state called for management « founded on transparency, sincerity of public accounts and sustainable control of indebtedness. »
The figures are far apart. In April, the IMF estimated public debt at 8,780 billion CFA francs at the end of 2025, or 70.9 percent of projected 2026 GDP, and forecast that it would reach 94.3 percent in 2027. That would be one of the fastest increases in Africa, at a time when most economies in sub-Saharan Africa are bringing their debt down. In September, the Gabonese authorities answered with their own audit, launched in June and covering the years 2016 to 2024. By their count, debt and arrears total 9,524 billion CFA francs, compared with around 11,700 billion in earlier estimates. Against a GDP recalculated at 13,822 billion, the ratio would fall to 68.91 percent, just below the 70 percent ceiling set by the CEMAC monetary zone.
The drop comes from two adjustments. First, the audit removed nearly 2,175 billion CFA francs of doubtful commitments: projects that were never carried out, multilateral loans that were never disbursed, poorly documented claims and duplicates. Second, GDP was revised upward using 2022 as the base year, giving more weight to activity linked to natural resources. The detailed report has not been published and has reportedly been shared only with the IMF. Nothing obliges the Fund to accept the new ratio. It can ask for a breakdown of every deduction, put some liabilities back on the books or publish its own estimates.
The president is willing to pay the political price of this review. In the spring, many expected a quick deal with the IMF, which Libreville had asked for a new programme in March. « An agreement will indeed be found with the IMF. We are fully prepared to sign a programme, » Oligui Nguema said. He explained that the signing had been postponed because he wanted a full audit of the debt first, « to start from clear bases. » He has also made it clear that he rejects austerity.
The Fund’s mission, led by Aliona Cebotari, had already presented its findings on September 23 to the Vice President of the Government, Hermann Immongault, after two weeks of work in Libreville. No financing agreement has been announced, but both sides say they are moving closer to a formal programme. They are aiming to conclude one by the end of the year.
The 2027 budget, adopted on September 18, shows how little time there is. It totals 6,223 billion CFA francs and sets aside 667.3 billion for interest payments alone, 37 percent more than in 2026. Once principal repayments are added, debt service reaches 2,546.8 billion, or about 41 percent of state spending. The wage bill, by contrast, rises by only 5.3 billion. To close the budget, Gabon plans to borrow 1,144 billion on international markets and 600 billion on regional markets.
Investors remain cautious. Moody’s rates the country Caa2 with a negative outlook, and the latest Eurobond carried a 9.375 percent coupon. In July, the revised budget authorised 1.5 billion dollars in foreign borrowing while cutting revenue forecasts by 22 percent, and Gabonese bonds fell. For Libreville, an IMF deal is now the best way to reassure those creditors. First, though, the Fund will have to decide whether it accepts the figures Gabon has put forward.