Flour, maize, vegetables: in Kenya, the grocery bill keeps climbing. In Nairobi and across much of the country, families are cutting back on what they buy, and some now make do with a single meal a day. Climate scientists blame shifting weather patterns for the surge, which is also taking a toll on farmers’ mental health.
Official figures confirm what households see at the market. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), annual inflation reached 6.8% in September, up from 6.6% in August and 6.5% in July, a third consecutive monthly rise. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 9.5% year on year, and transport 15.6%. A kilo of beef with bones now costs 782.68 shillings, while sukuma wiki, the leafy green found in almost every home, sells for 122 shillings.
At the stalls, vendors point to transport costs and supply chain disruptions, which are also eating into their own incomes. Climate experts identify a deeper cause. The dry spell that preceded the rains cut yields in several farming regions, and shrinking pasture has led to a milk shortage. Analyst Jackson Koimburi notes that Kenyan agriculture relies heavily on rainfall, leaving it exposed to every change in the weather.
The season could get harder still. In August, the government warned that 2026 food production could fall by 30 to 40% because of drought in the main grain-growing regions. The Kenya Meteorological Department now forecasts, with 99% probability, above-normal rainfall from October to December, continuing into February 2027. Families hope the rains will bring prices down, while fearing that heavier downpours could wipe out their crops.
This constant uncertainty leaves its mark on those who work the land. Doctors say a growing number of farmers are struggling with emotional stress. Every season, they invest in their crops with no guarantee of a return, and some do not always connect their distress with the weather.
At Outspan Hospital in Nyeri, clinical psychologist Kahindo Gacago estimates that about a third of his patients are farmers whose problems stem from repeated crop losses. He describes a sense of having lost control over something no one can master, and notes that some turn to alcohol or other substances to cope. He is calling on policymakers to build mental wellbeing into support programmes for farmers.
The problem is not new. A 2022 study in Embu and Meru counties found symptoms of anxiety, depression or psychosomatic disorders in 35.2% of smallholder farmers, with climate variability among the main triggers. Yet agricultural extension services rarely address stress management, and subsidy programmes offer little in the way of counselling or mental health screening.