Southern Africa is preparing to face one of the most intense El Niño episodes observed since 1950. Mozambique, particularly exposed to this phenomenon, now finds itself grappling with a climate situation that is as complex as it is worrying, with the event expected to peak toward the end of 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed the exceptional nature of this episode. The probability of it persisting through February 2027 now stands at nearly 100 percent, a degree of certainty never before seen in the organization’s bulletins. Such a level of confidence in the projections reflects the unusual scale of the phenomenon currently underway.
What makes this crisis particularly distinctive is the way a single global climate event is producing diametrically opposed effects across Mozambican territory. In the central and southern regions, a rainfall deficit seriously threatens subsistence crops as well as drinking water reserves. Forecasts point to a pronounced drought period between October 2026 and January 2027, a particularly critical window since it coincides with the national agricultural calendar and the planting of rainfed crops. Further north, the picture flips entirely. Heavy rainfall is expected, along with a heightened risk of flooding. Across a territory stretching nearly three thousand kilometers along the Indian Ocean, these two opposing climate realities will force authorities to manage both scarcity and excess water at the same time.
This dual threat comes against an already fragile backdrop shaped by recent disasters. Flooding in January 2026 affected roughly 724,000 people across the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala, Manica and Zambezia, worsening poverty and food insecurity in those areas. The Mozambican government has had to drastically revise its 2026 economic growth forecast downward, from 2.8 percent to just 0.59 percent, directly because of that flooding. To address the damage, a comprehensive post-flood recovery and reconstruction plan has been approved, with a budget of 102 billion meticais, roughly 1.4 billion euros.
According to ACAPS, an organization specializing in humanitarian crisis analysis, Mozambique now ranks among the countries most exposed to severe El Niño-related impacts between July 2026 and March 2027, alongside Madagascar, Malawi and Zimbabwe. The list also includes other vulnerable nations such as Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan, underscoring the global scale of this climate crisis.
Mozambican authorities note that the country remains one of the hardest hit by the effects of climate change, regularly facing floods and tropical cyclones during the rainy season. The 2023-2024 El Niño episode, linked to one of the worst droughts ever recorded in Southern Africa, affected more than thirty million people, according to the United Nations. Current forecasts point to below-average maize harvests, reduced availability of pasture and water for livestock, and continued deterioration of food security throughout 2027.