Ten million subscribers targeted, fintechs slashing fees and a controlling shareholder who keeps the reins: the offering is shaking up Nigeria’s stock market.
About four dollars is now enough to become a shareholder in Aliko Dangote’s refinery. Since September 14, the group has been offering 4.1 billion shares on the Nigerian stock exchange at 525 naira each, up to 2.15 trillion naira (nearly 1.6 billion dollars) if fully subscribed. The minimum ticket is ten shares, or 5,250 naira, and subscriptions stay open until October 13.
Nigeria has never attempted an offering this popular. The group hopes for ten million subscribers, when the country has only 2.7 million stock market investors today, and it speaks bluntly to people who have never opened a brokerage account, with a slogan, « Na Your Own. » To reach them, it multiplied the doors into the offer after the regulator’s approval on September 4: banks, savings apps, mobile money services such as MTN MoMo and Airtel SmartCash, the NGX Invest portal, stockbrokers. Depending on the count, there are between 32 and 55 approved channels, and the company warns that fake links and cloned banking portals are already circulating.
Fintechs, for their part, are fighting over customers. Bamboo, PiggyVest, Moniepoint and Cowrywise, among others, are waiving their own fees, convinced that a won-over investor will stay to save, invest and pay. The sector could also collect distribution fees, usually 0.5 to 1 percent of the money raised according to the platform Sycamore, which would amount to 10.75 to 21.5 billion naira across the industry.
The reception already looks enthusiastic. According to The Guardian Nigeria, the private placement was heavily oversubscribed, by 2.7 billion dollars, and more than 10 billion naira poured in within minutes of the public offer opening. Unconfirmed figures even mention 1.5 trillion in six hours. It is not yet known whether Dangote will ask to issue beyond the 25 percent margin the market allows without prior approval.
One significant caveat remains. This is an issue of new shares, but even fully subscribed it would leave Aliko Dangote with about 84 percent of the capital, with the public holding only 3.3 percent. The board has three independent directors out of ten, and analysts point to the usual refining risks: crude supply, margins, currency exposure, and execution of the expansion toward 1.4 million barrels a day. Small shareholders will come to share in the adventure, without really weighing on it.