One is speeding up sharply, the other is struggling to restart. In its twice-yearly report on Sub-Saharan Africa, released on Tuesday 6 October 2026, the World Bank sketches opposite fortunes for the continent’s two large Portuguese-speaking economies. Angola’s growth is expected to jump from 3.1% in 2025 to 4.5% this year. In Mozambique, the forecast tops out at 0.6%.
Luanda thus posts one of the steepest accelerations in the region. The institution points to the momentum the Angolan economy kept up in the second quarter, when gross domestic product expanded by 8.74% year on year. Like Nigeria and the Republic of Congo, the country is benefiting from commodity prices that favour oil exporters.
The upswing may not last, however. According to the Bank’s projections, the pace would ease to 3.3% in 2027 and 3.1% in 2028. In other words, Angola would be back at its 2025 level within two years, a sign of a dependence on hydrocarbons that today’s favourable conditions do nothing to fix.
In Maputo, the picture is considerably bleaker. Mozambique is admittedly returning to positive growth after contracting by 0.2% in 2025. But the rebound is slight and comes with a surge in prices: inflation is projected to rise from 4.4% to 7.5%, placing the country among six in the region where the increase exceeds three percentage points. Worrying debt levels add to the strain.
Both cases sit within a broader trend that is fairly encouraging. For Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, the World Bank now expects 4.3% growth in 2026, up from 4.1% last year and 0.3 points better than its April forecast. Outlooks were revised upward for 35 of the 47 countries, including Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia. Restored macroeconomic stability, stronger domestic demand and investment in energy and digital technology explain the improvement.
Yet the flattering figures conceal a harsher reality. Real income per capita would rise by only 1.8% this year, too little to make a real dent in extreme poverty. Median inflation, meanwhile, is set to climb to 5.5% on the back of costlier fuel, fertiliser and food. For Andrew Dabalen, the Bank’s chief economist for Africa, the challenge now is to turn this growth into jobs. On that front, Angola and Mozambique alike still have everything to prove.