The axe fell on Monday, November 2. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer issued a statement after Donald Trump informed Congress and the governments of Rwanda and South Africa that he intends to remove both countries from the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade preference programme, effective January 1, 2027. The move follows the annual interagency review of sub-Saharan countries’ eligibility, after which the president concluded that Kigali and Pretoria were engaging in practices at odds with the programme’s criteria.
Launched in 2000 under Bill Clinton, AGOA gives eligible countries duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products. Washington cited different grievances for each country. In South Africa’s case, the administration points to barriers facing American trade and investment, corruption, and threats to US national security and foreign policy interests. For Rwanda, the list covers trade barriers, the rule of law, political pluralism, workers’ rights and human rights. Notably, the statement makes no explicit mention of M23 or the conflict in eastern Congo.
South Africa has the most to lose. Over the past quarter century it has been the programme’s leading beneficiary, responsible for 54% of all AGOA-related exports to the United States. Ties between the two capitals have deteriorated sharply since Trump returned to office. His administration has labelled the South African government anti-white over its affirmative action policies and anti-American over its criticism of Israel and its relations with Iran, while its claims of widespread violence against white farmers have been described by the Associated Press as baseless. Just last week, Washington shut South Africa out of a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Atlanta.
The US ambassador in Pretoria, Brent Bozell, owned the decision, calling it a “predictable and preventable outcome.” That stance stands in sharp contrast with the hopes South Africa’s trade ministry was still voicing on Thursday, when it expected a favourable ruling. Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola had nonetheless warned last month that the country was bracing for the worst, while refusing to give up its sovereignty.
Economic reactions came quickly. The Cosatu labour federation expressed deep concern for thousands of farm and factory jobs and urged the government to use the remaining sixty days to negotiate. Southern Africa’s citrus growers also fear a serious blow to their industry.
Rwanda’s exposure is far smaller. US imports of Rwandan goods came to $43.3 million in 2025, and the country had already been partly sidelined: its apparel benefits have been suspended since July 31, 2018, following its ban on second-hand clothing.
The door is not fully shut. Excluded countries can be reinstated, and Greer said Washington wants its African partners to take the steps needed to meet the criteria. Meanwhile, Pretoria is widening its options. China has granted zero-tariff treatment to qualifying South African products from May 1, 2026, through April 30, 2028.