As the Antalya climate conference draws near, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its annual report on the gap between emissions and climate targets on October 21. Titled “The Point of Return”, this seventeenth Emissions Gap Report measures the distance between countries’ climate pledges and the cuts needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. Its verdict is grim.
If the policies currently in force stay as they are, warming could reach 2.8°C by 2100. Even if every country honoured its commitments, the outlook would barely improve, with global temperatures climbing 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels. The projection has worsened since last year, when UNEP estimated a range of 2.3 to 2.5°C. As for the 1.5°C threshold, the report concludes that this possibility has vanished after decades of insufficient action, particularly by G20 countries, which account for three quarters of global emissions.
Not all hope is lost, however. UNEP outlines a minimal overshoot scenario in which warming would peak at 1.7 or 1.8°C around mid-century before falling back below 1.5°C by 2100, with roughly a 50% chance of success. The price is steep: global emissions would have to drop by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025. In practical terms, this means at least tripling renewable electricity capacity, cutting coal-fired power generation by at least 75% and reducing methane emissions by a quarter by 2035. One bright spot comes precisely from renewables, whose global capacity has grown three times faster than expected.
For the African continent, these figures are anything but abstract. According to the World Meteorological Organization, Africa is now warming faster than the global average, and its glaciers, such as those on Kilimanjaro, are disappearing. Last year, extreme weather events there affected more than 13 million people and caused over 3,000 deaths. In East Africa alone, drought hit more than 8.5 million people, deepening food insecurity among communities that depend on farming and livestock. Every additional fraction of a degree matters, UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warns, because it heightens climate impacts and risks.
It is against this backdrop that African delegations are preparing to head to Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20. Several capitals have been gearing up. Abidjan hosted an international workshop in September to strengthen the skills of French-speaking negotiators, with a clear aim: mastering the rules of the game to better defend the continent’s interests. African observers will be watching closely to see how the forest commitments made in Belém turn into funding and action on the ground. The stakes also go beyond this year’s summit, since Ethiopia will host the following conference in 2027 on behalf of Africa.
