It all started with a highly symbolic act. On October 18, Somali Regional State authorities opened a new administrative office in Moyale’s Kebele 02 neighbourhood and raised their regional flag above it, in an area that the Oromia government administers and claims as its own. Tensions were made worse by the killing of a 13-year-old girl, Diqqoo Jaataan Aagaa, that same day. Within days, the border town had descended into violence.
Moyale’s geography goes some way to explaining how serious the situation is. The town is split in two by the international border between Ethiopia and Kenya, and its Ethiopian half is itself divided between the Oromia and Somali regional administrations, a line running through neighbourhoods and markets where both communities have lived side by side for generations. On October 22, regional forces reportedly brought in heavy weapons as the fighting escalated. Heavy gunfire between Oromo militia and Somali regional police eventually prompted Ethiopia’s federal army to step in.
The exodus has kept growing. A few hundred at first, then 36,000 according to UNHCR in late October, arrivals have now reached an unprecedented scale. Around 50,000 people have crossed into northern Kenya, and the International Organization for Migration warns that further influxes could overwhelm local services already stretched to breaking point. The United Nations even expects 30,000 more arrivals.
On the Kenyan side, people are rallying as best they can. In Marsabit County, some refugees have found shelter with relatives, while others have settled in schools and churches. Most of those in these shelters are mothers and children, and Kenya’s human rights commission recorded four births in two shelters in a single day. Aid agencies report serious shortages of food, water, shelter, sanitation and healthcare. Living together has not always been easy: the Kenya Red Cross has reported tensions between refugees and residents at the Manyatta Burji camp.
The regional economy is suffering too. Trade along the Kenya–Ethiopia corridor through Moyale, the main land route between the two countries, has ground to a halt.
This conflict is nothing new. Oromia and the Somali region share the country’s longest internal border, a boundary that has never been fully settled. In a 2004 referendum covering 420 disputed localities, Oromia was awarded roughly 80 percent of the areas. The communities at the heart of the fighting, the Borana on the Oromo side and the Garre on the Somali side, have clashed over the same land before, notably in 2012, when more than 20,000 people fled to Kenya. In 2017, violence along this boundary displaced close to a million people, according to IOM.
There is no sign of a quick lull. The UN estimates that more than 288,000 people have been displaced along the Oromia–Somali border. For Kenya, the Moyale crisis is shaping up to be a major test. The scale of the humanitarian response will depend on how the fighting in Ethiopia evolves and on the ability of local services to absorb ever growing needs.