Kenya’s weather service is calling for a broadly dry August across most of the country. But one detail in the forecast has forecasters on alert: a strengthening El Niño that could, as it did in March, trigger localized and deadly downpours.
The outlook released on August 3 reads two ways. On one hand, the general trend points to a sunny, dry month, with warmer-than-usual temperatures nationwide. Rainfall close to average, sometimes below it, is expected in the west, the Rift Valley and parts of the coast — Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Kisumu, Kericho, Kisii, Nakuru, Mombasa, Kilifi.
But the Kenya Meteorological Department adds a caveat that changes the picture: isolated heavy rainfall could still hit a handful of counties, even within this generally dry pattern. It’s exactly this kind of sudden, localized event that has people on edge, in a country that already paid dearly for one earlier this year.
In early March 2026, heavy rain hit Nairobi and thirty counties, triggering flash floods that killed at least 112 people, most by drowning or electrocution, and damaged nearly 7,000 homes. The Nairobi River burst its banks overnight, swamping major routes like Mombasa Road and Uhuru Highway, sweeping away vehicles and even disrupting flights at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, which had to divert some to Mombasa. That disaster is still the benchmark against which every new weather alert gets measured — which is why August’s forecast is getting close attention, even with « dry » as the headline word.
For the coming days, August 6 to 7, Kenya Met is forecasting rain in fifteen counties, mostly across the Rift Valley, western Kenya, Nyanza and the coast: Uasin Gishu, Bungoma, Busia, Kisumu, Siaya, Kericho, Kakamega, Trans Nzoia, Vihiga, Bomet, Nandi, West Pokot, Nyamira, Kisii, Kilifi and Lamu. Nairobi and several central counties — Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado — should instead see intermittent cool, cloudy weather without much rain. Nights will run cold in the central highlands, the Rift Valley and the southeast, with lows dropping below 10°C in places like Meru, Nyeri, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok and Kajiado.
Behind all this sits a bigger climate story. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s latest global seasonal update, published July 31, a strong El Niño keeps intensifying through the August-October 2026 window. It’s the kind of event that can scramble normal weather patterns worldwide, pushing temperatures above average in many regions.
For East Africa specifically, the WMO names Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania among the countries likely to see wetter-than-normal conditions over the next three months. That combination — a broadly dry forecast riding on top of a powerful El Niño — is exactly why officials keep flagging the risk of sudden, heavy rain even outside the country’s usual wet spots.
Seasonal forecasts through October suggest the relative dryness expected in August and September should give way to the short rains starting in October. It’s that transition period, shaped by El Niño’s instability, that experts are watching most closely — it matches the pattern that came before March’s deadly floods.
For Kenyans, especially in cities like Nairobi where drainage infrastructure is still vulnerable, the message hasn’t changed: a mild-looking August shouldn’t overshadow a now well-documented risk — sudden, heavy rain capable of causing serious human and material damage within hours.