Morale is picking up, but daily life remains hard. Released on Wednesday in Lilongwe, Afrobarometer’s latest nationwide survey shows that 60% of Malawians believe their country is moving in the wrong direction. That figure is still high, yet it marks a clear improvement on 2024, when the share stood at 76%.
This modest rebound in confidence does not hide the scale of the economic strain. Close to six in ten citizens describe the country’s situation as fairly or very bad, and a similar proportion believe it has deteriorated over the past five years. The survey portrays a population torn between emerging hope and hardships that show no sign of easing.
The figures on deprivation speak for themselves. Almost nine in ten Malawians went without a cash income at least once over the past year, and 70% went without enough food. Many respondents also reported shortages of medicines, clean water and cooking fuel.
To cope, families are turning to informal networks. More than half of those surveyed, 58% to be exact, had to borrow money from relatives or friends to get by, a sign that family solidarity serves as the safety net where banks and formal lenders remain out of reach.
Expectations of the state are clear. Around seven in ten Malawians, 68%, reject a devaluation of the kwacha, despite it being floated as a response to the foreign-exchange crisis gripping the country. Two thirds want the government to keep fuel prices low, even if that leads to supply shortages, a preference that reveals deep fears of another surge in living costs.
The government can nonetheless take some comfort from the findings. Ratings of its economic management have improved, which Finance Minister Joseph Mwanamvekha reads as a sign of renewed confidence. Job creation, however, remains the main source of public dissatisfaction.
The results come as a new threat looms. On Tuesday, UNICEF warned of what it describes as the strongest El Niño on record, with erratic rains, long dry spells and local flooding expected through March 2027. Some 2.6 million Malawians already face crisis levels of hunger, and a return of cholera cannot be ruled out. The UN agency has only $2.07 million of the $7.61 million required for its preparedness and response plan.
Caught between a population starting to believe in the future again and a season that promises to be harsh, Malawi enters the coming months on a knife’s edge.