The countdown has begun in Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu formally opened his campaign for a second term on Saturday, October 24, 2026, at a rally in Kaduna, in the north of the country, ahead of the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027. By midday, thousands of All Progressives Congress (APC) supporters had filled much of the 10,000-capacity Ranchers Bees Stadium, and the crowd kept growing as the rally got underway.
The 74-year-old head of state urged supporters to turn out in force on election day, promising “prosperity, continuity and progress”. He even asked the crowd whether everyone had their voter card. His aim was plain: to persuade voters that the painful economic reforms launched since 2023 are finally starting to pay off, despite a lingering cost-of-living crisis. In defending his record, he highlighted regular salary payments, economic recovery and efforts against corruption and fuel smuggling.
The president also went on the offensive. Brushing aside criticism over hunger and poverty, he laid the blame at his rivals’ door: “They created the hunger. They created the poverty.” The response came quickly. Phrank Shaibu, spokesperson for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s campaign, described the remarks as either “delusion” or a “staggering case of political amnesia”.
This war of words reflects the central issue of the vote. The government’s reform measures have fuelled Nigeria’s worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, according to Reuters. Recent indicators, however, paint a mixed picture. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation fell to 14.63% in September, down from 15.39% in August and 20.98% a year earlier, its lowest level since October 2020. Food inflation nonetheless remains high at 19.59%, barely changed from the previous month. Security will be the campaign’s other major test.
The field strongly echoes 2023. His main challengers are Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who finished second and third respectively in the last election. Atiku won the African Democratic Congress (ADC) primary, while Peter Obi now carries the banner of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), setting up another three-horse race. In 2023, Tinubu won the most votes but recorded one of the lowest vote shares ever for an elected president, and a divided opposition could once again work in his favour, AP notes.
The choice of Kaduna was no accident. The north is contested ground, where Atiku, a political heavyweight from the region, has a solid base and will try to eat into the president’s share of the vote. Tinubu can nonetheless rely on a formidable political machine: his camp claims the backing of 32 of the country’s 36 governors. That is a considerable organisational advantage, even though past elections have shown that governors cannot always deliver their states. The president has said he will not visit all 36 states so that he can stay focused on governing. His party’s proposed timetable includes rallies in 12 states, ending with a major closing event on January 9 in Lagos, his home state.
