Rwanda arrived at COP31 with a plan, a figure and a clear request. Prime Minister Justin Nsengiyumva is leading the delegation in Antalya on behalf of President Paul Kagame, and in front of the leaders gathered in Türkiye he presented the country’s third national climate plan. The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 53 percent by 2035 compared with a scenario without new measures, and carrying it out is expected to cost 12 billion dollars.
The breakdown of that sum shows where Kigali’s priorities lie. Adaptation takes about 7 billion dollars and emissions reduction about 5 billion, with nearly 7 billion needed as early as 2030. The country expects to cover only a limited share itself, around 2.14 billion dollars from domestic resources, or 18 percent of the total, while the rest depends on international help. Only a 7 percent cut in emissions is promised unconditionally. The remaining 46 points will happen only if the money arrives.
That explains why the prime minister insisted on climate finance that is predictable and easy to access. Above all, he urged investors to assess projects in developing countries on their merits rather than their location, a pointed reference to a familiar habit that raises the cost of capital in Africa before a single file has been examined. During a high level dialogue on green industrialisation on 11 November, he also pushed partners to move beyond announcements and offer real instruments, from blended finance to guarantees and carbon finance.
Kigali wants to show that money invested in Rwanda delivers results. Its delegation is highlighting a resource efficiency and cleaner production programme that saves more than 41 million megajoules of energy and avoids over 30,000 tonnes of CO₂ every year. At the Rwandan pavilion, the Rwanda Green Fund is due to launch a fund for decentralised renewable energy, and the Kigali International Financial Centre is presenting its updated sustainable finance roadmap.
In the negotiations, Rwanda’s position is close to that of the African group. It wants a clear roadmap towards the 300 billion dollar annual climate finance goal agreed at COP29, with more grants and concessional loans for adaptation. It is also calling for high integrity carbon markets, better access to the loss and damage fund and faster ratification of the Kigali Amendment on HFC gases. Earlier this month the country hosted the meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol, marking the tenth anniversary of that amendment.
COP31 is scheduled to close on 20 November. Until then, Kigali hopes its 12 billion dollar plan will be treated as an investment proposal rather than a simple list of needs.