Just 42 days to go. That was the countdown recalled on Tuesday, 10 November, before the UN Security Council by Anita Kiki Gbeho, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). On 22 December, the country is due to hold its first national elections since gaining independence in 2011. For the diplomat, the young state stands at a critical juncture.
The government shows a clear determination to stick to the date. Doubts, however, keep piling up. Gbeho is concerned about security, logistics and the ability of the National Elections Commission to meet such a tight timetable, as well as delays in implementing the 2018 peace agreement. On the political front, only the ruling SPLM has launched its primaries, while other parties remain largely inactive.
The climate hardened in September. President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government and dismissed all vice-presidents, including his long-time rival Riek Machar, who is now detained. An inter-party dialogue did take place, but its outcome remains uncertain. The SPLM-IO, Machar’s movement, has set a precondition for its participation: the release of its leader.
On security, the picture is mixed. Clashes between the main signatories of the peace deal have generally declined, but the situation has grown more complex. Communal violence now accounts for more than 60% of civilian casualties reported this year. Last month, violence in Rumbek and Greater Tonj reportedly killed more than 140 people. In Upper Nile State, fighting has driven more than 35,000 people from their homes, and three peacekeepers were killed in an ambush in Jonglei in August.
Civilians are paying a heavy price. Around 10 million South Sudanese need humanitarian aid and more than 7.5 million face food insecurity, according to figures presented to the Council. The war in neighbouring Sudan has pushed 1.4 million people across the border since April 2023. As for obstacles to humanitarian access, they have jumped by 38% in a year.
The warnings are growing louder. Invited to address the Council, Murithi Mutiga, Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group, said rushed elections could deal a final blow to the 2018 agreement. The African Union and IGAD, the regional bloc, are calling for a ceasefire, the release of political detainees and inclusive dialogue. Gbeho, for her part, urged leaders to see the vote as a step in the transition rather than its end point, stressing that it cannot replace dialogue.