The Strait of Hormuz keeps burning, at least according to Tehran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say two more tankers struck mines and caught fire, one inside the strait and the other to the east, as they tried to exit through a route Iran deems unauthorised, with their navigation and identification systems switched off. The day before, they had already reported three vessels in flames, including two supertankers and a tugboat that had come to help, while Iranian media spoke of as many as five tankers hit. No maritime authority has confirmed these incidents, however, so the tally remains unverifiable.
Verified attacks, meanwhile, are mounting. The Joint Maritime Information Centre, whose advisories are distributed by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), recorded four attacks in the strait within roughly two days, all off Oman’s Musandam peninsula. UKMTO also confirmed that a tanker had been struck by two unidentified projectiles north of Qatar. In the air, the Revolutionary Guards say they shot down two US reconnaissance drones over Qeshm Island, days after American strikes on the same island.
The direct result is that shipowners are avoiding the area. According to The Washington Post, only about thirty ships a day crossed the strait in October, compared with more than 130 before the war, and at least 25 vessels were hit during the month, two of which sank. US Navy escorts allow tankers through, but war-risk insurance has become so expensive that many private operators prefer to stay away. South Korea is sending maritime patrol aircraft and a mine-clearing team to help keep the passage open. In normal times, this strategic chokepoint carries around a fifth of the oil consumed worldwide.
In Washington, a decision is still pending. According to Axios, Donald Trump convened his national security team for the first time on Iran since the Republican rout in the midterm elections, which his own camp blames on the war. Three options are on the table: new strikes, continued economic pressure or a deal. Vice President JD Vance leads those pushing for negotiations, while the CIA director and the Treasury secretary argue for keeping the naval blockade. After the meeting, the president warned he would soon decide whether to go further, raising the threat of destroying the rest of the country while saying he would rather avoid it. He acknowledged that 18 US service members had died in the conflict. The military is also finalising preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations, though no order has been given.
Diplomacy is moving in parallel. Qatar is seeking to bring Washington and Tehran on board with a draft agreement setting out a three-day sequence of confidence-building steps, which could revive direct talks soon. Iran has set its conditions before any reopening of the strait: lifting the blockade of its ports, sanctions relief and the release of its frozen assets. Oman and Iran have called for lasting arrangements guaranteeing free navigation, and the UAE’s foreign minister urged his Iranian counterpart to de-escalate.
Oil markets are swinging with every signal. Brent lost nearly 8% the day after the midterms, falling below $100 for the first time since early October, before hitting a two-month low around $93. Lingering uncertainty and Iran’s announcements then pushed it back up toward $98. Until Washington chooses between war and negotiation, the strait will remain the most nervous barometer of the global economy.