World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned that the Ebola outbreak sweeping the Democratic Republic of Congo could, at its current pace, become the deadliest in history, surpassing the epidemic that devastated West Africa between 2014 and 2016. The toll now exceeds 2,000 deaths from more than 4,300 recorded cases, up from 2,423 cases and 967 deaths just three weeks earlier, a jump that shows how fast the virus is spreading. The WHO already calls it the fastest moving Ebola outbreak on record.
The exact origin remains unknown. The earliest suspected cases date back to late March, with likely infections among Red Cross workers, but the outbreak was only formally declared by Congo’s health ministry on May 15, before the WHO classified it the following day as a public health emergency of international concern. It is caused by the Bundibugyo ebolavirus, a rare strain distinct from the Zaire strain that usually drives outbreaks in the region, which complicates the response since existing treatments target other variants. Its fatality rate is estimated between 25 and 50 percent, and no vaccine or treatment has yet been approved specifically for it.
Having started in Ituri province, where nearly 90 percent of cases and deaths are concentrated around the city of Bunia, the outbreak has spread to North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut Uele, Tshopo, and Kinshasa, and has even crossed the border into Kampala, Uganda. Dr Thierno Baldé, who coordinates the WHO’s response, admits the outbreak keeps advancing faster than response teams can contain it, with new isolated clusters appearing regularly, and that in some areas it is « only just beginning. »
Several factors explain this rapid spread. The region is caught in a long running armed conflict involving several militias, including the ADF and CODECO as well as M23, which restrict humanitarian access and have targeted health workers, in an area where nearly 1.9 million people already need aid. On top of that sit a fragile health system, strikes by medical staff over unpaid wages, deep community distrust of medical teams (treatment tents have been set on fire and suspected patients fled a facility after a fire in Mongbwalu), and the transport of bodies between towns, which helps the virus spread further. The Congo River, a major transit route, is now under heightened surveillance in an effort to slow the virus’s spread to other regions.
In response, teams are focusing on early detection, contact tracing, safe burials and community engagement, with treatment centers opening, including a 65 bed facility run by Médecins Sans Frontières. On the funding side, the United Kingdom has committed £20 million, the United States roughly $112 million in bilateral aid, and the European Union €15 million, while the CEPI coalition is funding several vaccine candidates, including ones from Moderna, Oxford and IAVI, currently being tested in primates. Several countries, including the United States and Uganda, have also imposed travel restrictions or border closures.
According to WHO projections, the outbreak could peak within six months under a moderate scenario, but stretch on for nine to twelve months in the worst case, raising fears of a human toll far heavier than what has already been recorded
