Zambians are heading to the polls today to elect their president, in a vote that functions largely as a real world test of incumbent Hakainde Hichilema’s economic record. Known as « HH, » the 64 year old businessman won the presidency in 2021 on his sixth attempt, after spending four months in jail on treason charges under his predecessor Edgar Lungu, and is now seeking a second term. He is favored to win against Brian Mundubile, 55, a former minister from the Patriotic Front running as the candidate of a newly formed opposition alliance, along with a dozen other candidates, including Sean Tembo Kalaba.
Hichilema points to his restructuring of Zambia’s massive foreign debt, a return to economic growth, a stronger kwacha, and inflation that fell to 6.8 percent by April. But that macroeconomic record is struggling to convince a population that barely feels its effects day to day. More than 70 percent of Zambia’s 22 million people live on less than three dollars a day, unemployment sits near 10 percent, and food and energy prices remain high, while electricity supply is still unstable. That gap between official indicators and lived reality is what’s fueling frustration and uncertainty heading into the vote.
The economic stakes reach well beyond Zambia’s borders. The country aims to raise its annual copper output to 3 million metric tons by 2031, a metal that has become strategic for electric vehicles and renewable energy. China remains the largest foreign investor in Zambia’s mines, while the United States is looking to expand its own presence to diversify its sources of critical minerals.
The campaign hasn’t been free of tension. Mundubile accuses the government of restricting his party’s activities and says the election isn’t being held under free and fair conditions, calling instead for a « national reset » and reconciliation. The opposition more broadly accuses state institutions of being used against the government’s political rivals, a claim the government denies. A police raid on the Tonse Alliance’s offices days before the vote was called a politically motivated move by critics, and authorities have stepped up security in response to the rising tensions.
On the logistical side, around 8.7 million registered voters are casting ballots from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., not only for president but also to fill 226 parliamentary seats, up from 156 previously, along with local council positions. To win outright, a candidate needs more than 50 percent of the vote, otherwise a runoff will be held. Results are expected by August 17.