Vote counting in Zambia’s presidential election resumed Saturday evening, a day after Zambia’s Electoral Commission ordered a suspension of several hours following attacks on polling officials and the theft of ballots at several stations. Commission chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis justified the pause by citing the need to consult with law enforcement, before confirming a few hours later that the security threat to the electoral process had been contained, allowing the count to continue.
The very first official results, released just before midnight on Friday, offer an early but highly partial read on where the race stands. Across just four to five counted constituencies out of 226 nationwide, outgoing President Hakainde Hichilema holds a commanding lead over his main rival, opposition leader Brian Mundubile, with around 37,000 votes against 15,700, close to 70 percent of the votes cast in that sample. The figure should be treated with caution, since it represents only about 2 percent of Zambia’s 8.7 million registered voters, and the overall picture could shift considerably as more constituencies report.
That caution did not stop Brian Mundubile from claiming, as early as Friday, a first round victory along with a parliamentary majority for his side, based on internal vote tallies gathered by his party’s polling agents. He has not, however, published any evidence to back the claim. In response, the Electoral Commission’s leadership firmly reminded all candidates that declaring victory before official results are published constitutes an offense under Zambian electoral law, urging restraint until results are released constituency by constituency, in a process meant to allow transparent verification against original polling records.
The parliamentary election held the same day is shaping up as a far more fragmented and surprising picture. On the Copperbelt, traditionally an opposition stronghold, the NRPUP party reclaimed several key seats, including Nkana, Chifubu, Kabushi, Chingola Central, Nchanga and Chingola West, while in Kabwe Central former mayor Patrick Chishala defeated the incumbent MP from the ruling UPND. The ruling party has held its ground too, retaining seats such as Roma, Mpongwe West and Chilanga South, with some UPND candidates even elected unopposed. But it is independent and smaller party candidates who produced the biggest upsets: in Chongwe East, independent candidate Anita Kamanga defeated former Health Minister Sylvia Masebo, while the well known Chishimba Kambwili won Roan under the Citizens First banner, and Emmanuel Mulenga claimed Ndola Central for the Resolute Party.
Beyond politics, this election carries particular economic weight for Zambia, the world’s second largest copper producer, where international investors are waiting for political clarity before locking in several major commitments in the mining and infrastructure sectors, starting with recently approved financing for the Lobito Corridor railway. The country, which has seen every presidential transition since 1991 decided at the ballot box, now has its reputation for democratic stability tested by Friday’s incidents, even though the original timeline pointed to final results as early as Monday. The Electoral Commission has not yet said whether the twelve hour suspension in counting will affect that schedule. To win outright in the first round, a candidate needs more than 50 percent of the vote, failing which a runoff will be held between the top two finishers.